When it comes to tracking the national housing market’s performance, CoreLogic is one of the industry’s top voices. They provide insights and trend projections based on “trillions of data points” to anyone interested in “housing economies and property markets” (that’s the dry-as-melba-toast description of their focus area).
From time to time I come across their blog (the one with the exciting title of—wait for it— “Insights”). It’s worth reading because their national data has a track record of providing a fairly accurate profile—one we can compare with our local Northeast Florida housing market trends. It should be of interest to any Northeast Florida homeowner since, as CoreLogic puts it, “this is information which is at the core of every smart decision.” Hard to argue with that.
At the end of September, they came up with a look at the housing market thus far in 2014, and a look into the future. The year’s history to date was pretty much what’s been reported and confirmed elsewhere. A quick summary:
- Nationally, rates on 30-year fixed mortgages: steady at around 4.25%
- Freddie Mac reports continuing refinancing decline [of course: most folks’ mortgage loans have great rates already, so why refi again?]
- Existing home sales healthy & growth rate steady
- “Pent-up supply and demand dynamics gripping the housing market…”
Hold it! What was that?
This was anything other than the staid, predictable language we expect from CoreLogic. I didn’t say boring (because blogger Mark Fleming is a good writer)—but fireworks are definitely not Insight’s hallmark. Sooooo…what’s with the drama? You had to read further to see what caused them to get all worked up:
–In a slow-moving housing market [like the Northeast Florida housing market, for instance], a major decline in prices can take 5 years, and the bounce back to prior levels another five years.
–Year-over-year, house price growth has been “consistently strong”
–The depth and duration of the current housing cycle is consistent with past local cycles
All of which leads to:
“Based on our forecast, nationally we may see prices return to the prior peak in as few as three years.”
In case your take on our Northeast Florida housing market is anything like as bullish a scenario as that one, today could be a strategic time to give me a call! Whether your own plans involve seizing the moment to buy or sell, the first step is to place an experienced Realtor® at the core of your team.